Predicting the future is difficult. What I can tell you with certainty is that with every civilization there is always an ongoing centralization of cultural development into the hands of fewer and fewer people as fewer and fewer are fully literate.
Full Literacy isnt just the capacity to read and write, its the ability to understand, communicate and contribute as an equal. That isnt just in verbal communication, or written words. Its the capacity to participate in cultural development, and the basic operation of civilization as a machine. Eventually these systems we rely on to serve us and keep us safe, protect us and keep us fed and warm at night will fail because there are not enough people fully literate enough to not only develop something better, or simply maintain what we have, but operate them.
You can take a small boulder and sit it in a log and turn that rock in a circle over and over until the rock cobs out a hollow forming a bowl. Or you can do that to a rock making a stone bowl, or a jade bowl, or a jar, or a cup. But that takes time and it qualifies as skilled labour.
And to feed that army of bowl makers, you need food to feed him or her, and you need blankets to keep them warm. And you need people who are skilled in food production and weaving to produce those things. And at some point you wind up with people in charge, who think they should be in charge of everyone for life and that job of being in charge should be passed to their offspring because they are possessed of the Mandate of God or are God.
As someone who knows God is a lie designed to disuade you from impaling that guy in charge and his offspring on a pointy pole just long enough for the guy in charge to surround himself with a skilled army loyal to getting a share of that power, so they have more pointy impaling poles than you do and can keep you slaving away making bowls for less blankets and less food, I can tell you it sucks when you are not regarded as equal and free.
And if the people in charge are not fully literate, then they are going to be as dangerous to that civilization thing you were happy to be a part of back at the beginning when it mattered. As dangerous as they are going to be to you.
So you accept less. Because now they can take that civilization from you. And they can take from you the next civilization you build when you decide to just up and leave.
So this time around you build a civilization and you all agree that everyone is equal, but you still find that making decisions for others pisses them off so you all suddenly need people with pointy sticks to keep each other from wanting to be in charge forever, but again those in charge become specialized in their work while you are off making bowls, food, and blankets. They stop almost everyone from getting their hands on pointy poles, particularly those who don't want people in charge. So again you wind up with people in charge who think they are worth more than the bowl makers, food growers, and blanket weavers.
So you accept less. And they are quite happy to hang out with the people who were in charge of the previous civilization because they see in each other an equality. They are all sure that they are more important than you.
You never know... maybe this time you can build a new civilization. The problem is obviously those in the group who think you need someone in charge, so lets leave them out this time. Growing food, and weaving a blanket can't be harder than cobbing a bowl.
Right?
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